Brexit Scenarios: An Impact Assessment

Introduction

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union (EU), its Single Market and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has created much uncertainty for the agricultural sector. AHDB has identified four main areas of concern. These are:

(i) Terms of international trade, both with the remaining EU-27 and with other countries
(ii) Domestic agricultural policy, as manifest in support payments, rural development and market management
(iii) Migrant labour and its availability
(iv) The UK regulatory environment

This study explores these four areas using three scenarios. These scenarios are intended to contain the likely possibilities resulting from the UK’s exit from the EU. At one end, there is a scenario that essentially represents a ‘business-as-usual’ option where policy, regulatory framework and trading relations remain as close to the status quo as is possible given that the UK will no longer be part of the EU’s Single Market. The other two options involve degrees of reduction in support payments to UK farmers and restrictions to migrant labour.